Retirement Path Flow
Estimate retirement readiness from portfolio growth and safe withdrawal assumptions.
Get projected retirement income and contribution gap analysis.
Why this flow matters
Retirement readiness is a numbers question, not a hope question. This flow tells you if your current contribution pace lands the plane - and if not, exactly how much more per month closes the gap.
Your diagnosis
On track. Portfolio: $1,252,475 at age 60.
- LaterSubtract expected Social Security from your spending target before re-running
Your inputs
Edit any value - the diagnosis above updates instantly.
How the math works
The exact rules and formulas this flow applies - no black box.
- 1.Future value uses compounded monthly returns: FV = P(1+r)^n + C x ((1+r)^n - 1)/r.
- 2.Annual income at retirement = projected portfolio x safe withdrawal rate (default 4%).
- 3.4% rule comes from the Trinity Study - historically a 30-year retirement survives at 4% withdrawal in nearly all market periods.
- 4.Required-contribution solver uses binary search to find the monthly amount that closes the spending gap.
How to read your result
- Annual income gap = 0: on track, keep contributing.
- Gap > 0: under-saving. The "monthly needed for target" tells you the specific raise.
- Years to retirement < 10 with large gap: increase contributions AND consider working 2-3 years longer - both move the needle.
Common questions
Is 7% return realistic?
Long-run US equities ~7% real (after inflation). Use 5% if you want a conservative plan, 7% as base case.
Why 4% withdrawal and not 5%?
4% has the strongest historical evidence for 30-year horizons. 5% works for shorter retirements (under 20 years) but introduces sequence-of-returns risk.
Should I include Social Security?
Yes - subtract expected annual SS from your spending target before running the flow. It dramatically reduces the portfolio you need.